Thursday, June 23, 2011

Semis: A Bad Year Ahead?

Yesterday, prior to the release of Micron's earnings report (the stock is getting clobbered in the after hour session), semiconductor industry research house Semico was quoted in this article on the Electro IQ website:

Semiconductors Weak Through 2012, Semico Predicts

"Semico expects H2 2011 and early 2012 to bring a weak semiconductor market, as the Semico inflection point indicator (IPI) has been steadily declining since May 2010. In August 2010, the Semico inflection point indicator (IPI) index experienced its first drop since December 2009."

There's more at the link -- a chart of their inflection point indicator (IPI) and some comments about the potential for an inventory build.

Predicting all the way through the first few months of next year is pretty bold. Semico is brave enough to even go a bit farther and suggest that the industry will experience an uptick in the second half of 2012. I'm certain they will be attending Semicon West and more than likely they will provide an update. I'm definitely going to have an ear to the ground.

If these analysts are right and the second half of the year does turn out weak great bargains be available in the PC, notebook, smartphone and tablet categories. Unfortunately this probably does not mean great things for the stocks. If you are an electronics consumer you might want to be aware that discount prices for these digital widgets (dwidgetals) will soon come to a store near you.

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