Friday, May 27, 2011

Solar Module Inventories

As the module companies began to report the first looks at financial statements began to show what we all knew - the shutdown of Italy as it worked out its FIT issues backed up inventory, jamming warehouses, ships and manufacturing site parking lots with modules...

None of which, by the way, was evident in the analyst commentaries, including those who had been in China as recently as March & April.

Record Module Inventory Awaiting Installation As Prices Continue To Fall

"Global PV module inventory levels have reached over 10 GW in the second quarter of 2011, the highest amount recorded to date, according to the latest analysis from IMS Research."

One of my friends that works for a module maker began inquiring with sell-siders to find out what their channel checks had revealed. What he found was that several big name teams had not bothered to peform a check (stunning in light of the inverter companies pre-announcing) and had not heard this story line forming.

Anyway, most have gotten beyond that and are coming up with a real range of about 4GW to 6GW. The slow install period in Germany and the likelihood of a modest FIT revison come June 30th, should spur some demand in 2H11. Will it be enough? Not by themselves...and not if the Euro should move in a bad direction....

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