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Embracing Trial and Error Within Complex Systems

As a Research Fellow with Coburn Ventures I am privileged to receive their periodic missives. The group covers a lot of ground and their grasp of the “changes” in the technology world are always insightful and compelling. Between portfolio strategy and coverage of individual companies members also contribute book reviews and thought pieces. [...]

Chip Industry Pulse – The Presentation Parade

Below, for your weekend reading enjoyment, you will find a set of links to some technology company presentations and a few stories from around the modern InterTubes.

Many of the company presentations contain the same message – tough sledding is expected for the next few quarters. But never fear, you will also find optimistic [...]

Your Investment Brain

Here’s a humorous/insightful Presentation from Barry Ritholz on Equity Investing. Definitely worth a view:

Agora Vancouver BRAIN 2011.

Comments are more than welcome!

All that Cash!

Late last night I took the time to listen to Horace Dediu discuss Apple’s growing cash position and their “What should we do with it?” dilemma.

The Critical Path #3: It’s Good to Be King – 5by5

This is a fascinating discussion for the times. I say this because it touched on how important it [...]

Lowering the Bar

Pre-announcements. Mid-Quarter Updates. Estimate revisions. Rating changed. Price target moved.

A few weeks before earnings season kicks in to high gear there’s always a parade of analyst reports that hit the streets and they all pretty much sound like this: “Our proprietary channel checks suggest [...]

Semis: A Bad Year Ahead?

Yesterday, prior to the release of Micron’s earnings report (the stock is getting clobbered in the after hour session), semiconductor industry research house Semico was quoted in this article on the Electro IQ website:

Semiconductors Weak Through 2012, Semico Predicts

“Semico expects H2 2011 and early 2012 to bring a weak semiconductor market, as the Semico inflection [...]

The Policy Dart Board: Solar? Wind? Both?

Should New York be installing solar panels or wind turbines on their bridges and skyscrapers? Maybe both – policymakers are studying studies <ahem>.

When will they make up their minds?

Here are a couple of relevant stories:

Mapping Sun’s Potential to Power New York
MIREYA NAVARRO | NY Times | June 16, 2011

Two-thirds of New York’s [...]

Tech Stock Investing Rules Revisited

A reminder as we enter the dog days of Summer….

A couple of years ago JP Morgan semiconductor analyst Chris Danely served up ten rules for investing in technology/semiconductor stocks:

http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/Popups/PrintArticle.aspx?ArticleID=2117316

All I could think at the time was, “Wow! Talk about great fodder.”

Here’s what I wrote (with a few additions):

After discussing this list with several investment [...]

What Q1 Says About Semiconductor Capital Spending

With downgrades gripping the semiconductor equipment sector I thought I would share a bit of history about capital spending budgets. Again, I’m going to present some observations from the guru over at IC Insights, Bill McClean.

In this table we see how reliable Q1 announcements are in predicting the total amount and direction of [...]

Tail Risk in the Semiconductor Business

For some bizarre reason the semiconductor business is drawn to areas that are prone to earthquakes.

Why do they do this? It’s a question that has been asked time and time again but no one seems to have an answer.

About a month after the Japanese earthquake/tsunami Bill McClean of IC Insights, (one of my [...]