Semiconductor

ITRS Roadmap

May 13, 2010
By Carl Johnson

For your weekend reading enjoyment….. The 2009 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors, in all its glory, is available right here: http://www.itrs.net/Links/2009ITRS/Home2009.htm Everyone should have a copy.   I strongly recommend reading it when it is raining outside.   Some of the tech transitions have been visible for a over a decade but they are the very reason...
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Intel and TSM – fizzling

February 25, 2010
By Carl Johnson

One full year from the original announcement Jim McGregor from InStat offers this: “Intel, by some accounts, is guilty of its own success,” McGregor said. “No matter what, they are skewed as the 800-pound gorilla when they enter a new market.” A bit of a linkfest here – very much noteworthy: A Tie up between...
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Piper Says Buy the Semis

February 8, 2010
By Carl Johnson

Piper Jaffray semiconductor analyst Gus Richard makes some very valid points in his call to buy the semiconductor group.   I do think there is a trade here because the semi-stocks have come down so far.   Cross your fingers, knock on wood….   It’s another call on the market. Your mileage will definitely vary (consider this a...
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Posted in Semiconductor, Semiconductor Equipment | 1 Comment »

Gartner: Strategies for Recovery

June 17, 2009
By infras

Gartner presented their “Strategies for Recovery” at a Silicon Valley briefing this week. Color me, jaded. Yeah, I know. I’ve earned a charter membership to that club. I’ve been hosting a pretty good discussion about this session on the subscriber mailing list and I am hoping to land a copy of...
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Business vs. Stock Recoveries

May 19, 2009
By Carl Johnson

You’ve probably read about it yesterday but yet another sell-side analyst upgraded a group of SCE companies. I have to tell you my friends in the business are very cynical about this. And yes, I know that Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC) stated that their business has picked up and that...
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Today's weak analysis winner is….

May 6, 2009
By infras

Today’s weak analysis winner is…. None other than Rick Whittington! Mr. W and his $17-regression-line-based-EPS-extrapolation for Micron back in ‘97 will stand in infamy as one of the all-time classic analyst outputs. How soon we forget. Today’s piece, published in the Intelligent Investing (ahem) section of Forbes, ranks right up there! Containing only...
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Tuesday Scattershoot

April 21, 2009
By Carl Johnson
Tuesday Scattershoot

I was thinking about “the lack of cash issue” today and how it relates to the many hurdles ahead for the semiconductor industry. Getting a bit more specific, I’m thinking about the capital required to develop 450mm and of all things, to fund an industry consolidation. The 450mm question is easy and was...
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Top Ten+…. Revisited!

April 15, 2009
By Carl Johnson

Greetings! Okay, this is a revisit but because we are in the throes of earnings season some of these thoughts are worth repeating. This particular note was sent in early March and got passed around quite a bit. Eric Savitz called it a “Magnum Opus”. FWIW….. Opened yesterday morning’s e-mail with stories from...
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2nd Half Rally?

April 15, 2009
By Carl Johnson
2nd Half Rally?

Over the past few days, right here in the midst of earnings season, I have had considerable discussion with semi industry folks about the bullish forecast from IC Insights – the pent-up demand part. If you have an interest, there’s a story over on the EE Times website that talks about the forecast. I...
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Posted in Debt, Economics, Financial, Semiconductor, Stimulus | No Comments »

Economic and EPS FYI….

April 2, 2009
By Carl Johnson

Call this, an economic FYI….. At the bottom of this message you will find a compilation of comments from a portfolio manager. The comments speak to the disconnects we see in today’s economic analysis. Believe me, I have wrestled with this stuff for years – headline interpretation vs. real analysis. ...
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