Kauffman Economic Outlook: A Quarterly Survey of Leading Economic Bloggers, Third Quarter 2011.
Optimism is out; pessimism is in among the country's top economics bloggers as they look to 2012 and beyond, particularly regarding jobs. A new Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation survey released today shows that only 50 percent of respondents anticipate employment growth, a decrease of 20 percent from second quarter.
Fully 95 percent of respondents view current economic conditions as "mixed" or "facing recession," an increase of 10 percent from second quarter, and a third predict a double-dip recession during 2012. "Uncertain" is once again the top adjective economics bloggers use to describe the economy, and respondents shared expectations of higher annual deficits and the top marginal tax rate.
From Slide 11 of the Full Survey:
In every category of business, conditions right now are rated as “fair, bad, or very bad” by more than 69 percent of respondents, with venture and angel capital being the least bad of them all at only 69 percent, while bank lending to individuals is rated 90 percent negative.
Well, one thing is for sure, they don't call it the "dismal science" for nothing.
Wait a second - perhaps stuff like this is still a good contrarian play? After all, the stock market, as measured by the Wilshire 5000, just had its biggest up month in 24 years.